Political shifts: BC election results on the North Shore
The North Shore used to be a provincial BC Liberal stronghold. In politico speak, that means it was a “small-c” conservative fortress. For decades, all North Shore electoral districts would go blue under the BC Liberals (rebranded BC United). But look at our new electoral map and the diversity of colours representing the different parties today. Now, there’s just a single remaining conservative bulwark in the West Vancouver-Capilano electoral district. In aggregate, these results are historic and signify a shift from a generationally conservative or right-wing voting propensity to a more left-of-center weighting. Why?
There are different possible reasons for this shift. One explanation is that while the baby boom generation was the largest voting demographic on the North Shore between 1980 and 2020, they mainly voted small-c conservative. Now that baby boomers are no longer the most significant voting cohort, millennials are supplanting their dominance and casting votes on the progressive side of the political spectrum with the Greens and the NDP. Places with population growth, like Squamish, Pemberton, Maplewood and SeaLynn, may be more inviting to younger voters. This growth includes the First Nations in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, North Vancouver- Lonsdale and North Vancouver Seymour electoral districts.
Another possibility is that aging boomers have altered their support from the right, moving it to the center-left. This view is supported by province-wide polling by Ipsos, which reported in October:
“The NDP leads among older voters (NDP 56% vs. CONS 35% among 55+ years), while the Conservatives lead among younger voters (CONS 53% vs. NDP 31%). The two parties are effectively tied among voters in the middle (NDP 43% vs. CONS 41% among 35-54 years).”
We can’t extrapolate from the entire province to just the North Shore, so both theories are just conjecture. The other change that may have had a riding-by-riding impact was the alteration of electoral district boundaries. Elections BC altered all the North Shore districts in 2023 to maintain as close to 65,000 people per riding as possible. The effect of the boundary changes requires a closer look and the as-yet unreleased poll-by-poll results, but in the meantime, here’s a dive into the results for each North Shore electoral district.
West Vancouver - Sea to Sky
BC Green Jeremy Valeriote narrowly won this electoral district, marking the first time the BC Greens secured a mainland Legislative Assembly member. Valeriote's 3% point victory, with 38% of the vote, was a tight race against BC Conservative Yuri Fulmer. In the last provincial election (2020), Liberal Jordan Sturdy won the riding by a very slim .24% over Valeriote. Moving from BC Liberal to BC Green by a narrow margin makes this a “swing” riding. Moreover, if you look at the pie chart with squinty eyes, it was almost a three-way split, with the NDP not too far behind.
Valeriote’s win signifies a shift towards environmental and progressive policies in the region, reflecting a growing concern for sustainability and climate action. A poll-by-poll look at voting patterns will probably reveal a stronger green vote in growing places like Pemberton, Squamish and Whistler. We will dig deeper into that assumption when Elections BC releases the poll-by-poll results in the coming weeks.
The legislature will need a Speaker, and the NDP will look outside their party to fill that post since they have such a slim majority. They may approach one of the Greens, but it may be better for Valeriote and Rob Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands to decline if asked. Because the Speaker is meant to remain neutral, the Greens would lose one of only two votes in the legislature. They can still cooperate with the NDP or the BC Conservatives on a vote-by-vote basis if they don’t give a member up to the Speaker’s Chair.
Jen Ford NDP 7,212 26.31%
Yuri Fulmer Conservative 9,762 35.61%
Jeremy Valeriote Green 10,438 38.08%
27,412 100.00%
West Vancouver - Capilano
In West Vancouver-Capilano BC Conservative, Lynne Block won by a large margin. Block defeated incumbent MLA Karin Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick, a member of BC United (formerly the BC Liberal Party), had declared before this election that she would not be running. However, once she learned that BC United was no longer, she ran independently. The BC Conservative win could indicate a preference among residents for their platform, which focussed on cost of living, economic growth, taxes, and public safety. Or residents simply did not see eye-to-eye with the policies of the governing New Democrats - particularly on housing, transportation and healthcare.
A notable takeaway is that Kirkpatrick fared as well as she did without a party brand to help people understand what she represented. Of the North Shore independents, she pulled the largest number of votes at 20%. This may also have been due to strategic voting. People who might otherwise have voted NDP or Green, thinking neither party would win, may have voted for Kirkpatrick to “keep the conservatives out.” If you take the two right-leaning candidates, Block and Kirkpatrick and add their votes together, they attracted almost 70% (67.3%) of all votes.
Lynne Block Conservative 12,048 46.67%
Sara Eftekhar NDP 7,005 27.14%
Archie Kaario Green 1,435 5.56%
Karin Kirkpatrick Independent 5,325 20.63%
25,813 100.00%
North Vancouver - Lonsdale
Bowinn Ma, the BC NDP Member of the Legislative Assembly and Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness, was re-elected in North Vancouver-Lonsdale. This electoral district fielded only two candidates. No Greens and no independents running meant voters had less nuanced choices.
Ma’s 32% point victory over conservative rival David Splett indicates that the majority of voters of this electoral district, including the growing Squamish First Nation, support the current NDP government’s policy trajectory. In 2017, when Ma first ran, she won by a 7% margin. Ma’s ability to lead on seemingly intractable issues like North Shore traffic and her inclusiveness make her a popular candidate.
Ma may continue as Minister of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness, or she may be promoted to another portfolio, possibly to Transportation and Infrastructure. Rob Fleming, the ex-Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure, did not run this election, so the portfolio is open. It would be a good fit for Ma, a third-time elected MLA with cabinet experience and a prior career as a transportation engineer. It could be good news for the North Shore if she were appointed to Transportation and Infrastructure.
Bowinn Ma NDP 16,757 64.88%
David Splett Conservative 9,072 35.12%
25,829 100.00%
North Vancouver - Seymour
In the 2020 election, BC Liberal MLA Jane Thornthwaite lost what was considered a reliably Liberal seat to BC NDP Susie Chant. Before 2020, the riding had only ever elected an NDP once, in 1972. In 2020, this electoral district was Thornthwaite’s to lose, and in 2024 it was Chant’s to win. This summer, the BC Conservatives became the ersatz equivalent of the BC Liberals in representing right-wing policies, but this electoral district did not flip back to the right. BC NDP party central concentrated resources into this riding to help ensure a strong (over 50%) performance for Chant against BC Conservative Sam Chandola. Premier David Eby visited the riding close to the election, indicating the importance of this riding to the NDP and their outcome.
The demographic composition of this electoral district is changing, and there is high growth in neighbourhoods like Maplewood, SeaLynn, and Lynnmour. The Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh First Nations potentially made an impact as well. Again, poll-by-poll results will be interesting to assess once Elections BC releases them. Will Chant get a cabinet post? Maybe. As a two-term MLA, she offers more experience than some incoming members. Because Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, is the more senior legislature member and is already in the cabinet, the premier may favour awarding posts to people in other areas of the province.
Mitchell Baker Independent 1,793 5.84%
Sam Chandola Conservative 10,994 35.79%
Susie Chant NDP 16,210 52.77%
Subhadarshi Tripathy Green 1,721 5.60%
30,718 100.00%